Bitcoin Fell in Every Past Midterm Year and Rallied the Year After. Which Pattern Wins This Time?
Key Summary
Bitcoin has crashed by 56% in 2014, 73% in 2018, and 64% in 2022, before rallying an average of 54% the year after each downturn. As of October 5, 2026, Bitcoin is 32% below its previous high of $126,080, prompting questions about whether this midterm slump will follow the historical pattern. Unlike past declines, which were full calendar-year losses, Bitcoin's current 32% drawdown is the mildest midterm cycle decline on record. Introduced spot Bitcoin ETFs may have cushioned the 2026 decline compared to prior midterm crashes, potentially disrupting the pattern.
Bitcoin has crashed over 50% in every midterm election year on record, then bounced back hard the year after. But 2026 is breaking the mold in ways that could upend everything investors think they know about this cycle.