Bitcoin's Uptober Thesis Validated by CryptoQuant's 3 Charts

Market Analysis

CryptoQuant's onchain analysis has shed light on the current state of Bitcoin's market conditions.

Onchain Conditions

The analysis points to a local BTC price bottom forming, with conditions in a state of "cautious optimism". Bitcoin continues to weather mixed macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, including 24-year highs in US bond yields, rising oil prices, and cooling capital inflows to exchange-traded products.

Signs of a Potential Bottom

Signs of a potential bottom are emerging, with cooling expectations of interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve into 2027, boosting the odds of inflows improving. At the same time, markets expect more clarity over the US domestic political situation after the approaching Midterm Elections.

Whales and Exchange Reserves

Bitcoin exchange reserves have fallen from 2.726 million on Sept. 20 to 2.68 million as of Tuesday, a decrease of 1.7%, despite a modest increase over the past week. The combined holdings owned by large-volume investors, or whales, remain above 3 million BTC.

Apparent Demand

Apparent demand, a measure that compares newly mined BTC with changes in dormant supply, shows overall demand remains supportive. Related: Bitcoin keeps up pressure on $84K as US stocks skirt Korea tech sell-off

Conclusion

CryptoQuant's analysis suggests that Bitcoin's traditionally strong October performance may still be intact, despite macroeconomic headwinds. The analysis points to a local BTC price bottom and a potential start of a new crypto bull market.