Mystery Bets on Trump’s New Press Secretary Could Turn $173 Into $9,600
Key Summary
Three small bets on Katie Zacharia becoming Trump's press secretary risked under $175 and could pay more than $9,500, despite being seen as a long shot with a 1% chance. Zacharia was not a front-runner before her appointment, and the bets were placed on a prediction market regulated by the CFTC. The bets were made just hours before Trump's announcement, and Kalshi is now investigating the trades.
Mystery Bets on Trump's Press Secretary Land Early
Background
Kalshi is a prediction market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Users buy contracts on real-world events. Each contract pays $1 if the event happens, so a 1% chance costs about 1 cent. The first bet, for $19, went in around 10:43 p.m. ET on Thursday. That's according to a Journal review of public Kalshi data. It is set to pay $1,896. Two more bets, of about $74 and $80, followed at around 1:41 p.m. on Friday. They are set to pay $3,689 and $4,023.
Investigation
Kalshi doesn't show traders' names publicly, but it keeps records of who placed each bet. The White House has not commented on the trades, but Zacharia has expressed her excitement about the appointment. She advises Trump Media & Technology Group, the company that runs Truth Social, on communications. Zacharia replaces Karoline Leavitt.
Context
Zacharia is an attorney and a regular commentator on Fox News and Newsmax. She advises Trump Media & Technology Group, the company that runs Truth Social, on communications. Zacharia replaces Karoline Leavitt. Notably, this is not Kalshi's first case tied to the White House. In August, Trump's teleprompter operator, Gabriel Perez, settled with the CFTC over bets on the president's speeches. He handed back $107,539, paid a $65,000 penalty, and accepted a three-year trading ban. Earlier, a run of well-timed bets on the Iran war prompted a White House memo. It warned staff against using nonpublic information for private gain. Lawmakers also opened a separate insider trading probe last month into three other platforms.