OpenAI and Anthropic count revenue differently, and investors are confused

OpenAI and Anthropic Revenue Discrepancy Causes Investor Confusion

Background

OpenAI and Anthropic, two prominent AI companies, have differing revenue figures due to different accounting methods. Investors are confused, with estimates ranging from $50 billion to $70 billion, highlighting the need to consider the source of revenue when comparing companies.

The Problem

The trouble starts with what counts as revenue in the first place. Both OpenAI and Anthropic sell their AI models directly and through cloud platforms such as Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud, where a business customer buys access through its existing cloud account.

The Solution

Annualized revenue run-rate, or ARR, is a simple idea. You take a company's current revenue pace and project it across a full year.

The Discrepancy

According to the research findings, the gross-versus-net choice alone can move ARR by up to $8 billion between otherwise similar firms.

The Consequences

The $70 billion estimate was reportedly an attempt to compare OpenAI and Anthropic on equal footing before either one lists. Investors want to know which company is truly ahead, and right now the answer changes depending on the accounting method.

The Takeaway

For anyone tracking the AI sector, the practical takeaway is to ask a basic question before comparing headline revenue: gross or net? The answer can account for billions of dollars, and it is not always disclosed alongside the number.