Options Traders Return to 2021 Levels as Bitcoin Falters, Will It Repeat Last Year's Doubling
Key Summary
Options trading on individual stocks has reached 2021 levels, with Bitcoin failing to repeat its doubling from 2021, despite comparable retail sentiment. The lack of inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs and Ethereum spot ETFs suggests that retail investors are focusing on other assets, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to a potential downturn. Analysts say that 2026 retail flows are concentrating in a handful of stocks, rather than spreading across the market, which could impact Bitcoin's price action.
Historical Background Context
Options traders are back at 2021 levels, with options trading on individual stocks reaching $700 billion a day in underlying share value. This is similar to the levels seen in 2021, when Bitcoin staged a 2021 doubling from $29,000 to almost $65,000.
The 2021 stock boom was driven by a post-Covid wave of new retail traders moving into derivatives, and retail enthusiasm is now comparable to 2021 levels, according to the Wall Street Journal.
However, Bitcoin's price action sits just under $84,000, and U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) logged $65.40 million in net outflows on October 12, per crypto data tracker SoSoValue.
BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounted for all of the outflows, and Ethereum spot ETFs lost $85.39 million, extending their outflow streak to 10 consecutive days.
Analysts say that 2026 retail flows are concentrating in a handful of stocks rather than spreading across the market, which could impact Bitcoin's price action.
The American Association of Individual Investors says 40.3% of surveyed investors expect higher stock prices within six months.
Meanwhile, retail sentiment is comparable to 2021 levels, and Bitcoin's price action sits just under $84,000.