Polymarket Retail Traders Face High Loss Rates

Key Summary

A Galaxy Research study of 2.9 million Polymarket retail traders found that 69% finished below break-even, resulting in aggregate losses of $338.9 million. The median retail account lost around $3, with losses ranging from small to thousands. Traders who lost money were more likely to churn out, with 15.2% not trading again within 30 days. Profitable traders tended to specialize in one topic, make larger bets, and trade more frequently, but held positions for longer periods. The study covered Polymarket's international platform and noted that 44% of traders focused on one topic, with specialists performing less profitably than generalists.