SpaceX credit risk gauge hits record high amid $40 billion fundraising talks

What the Bond Market is Saying

Think of a credit default swap as an insurance policy on a company's debt. If the borrower can't pay, the policy pays out. The more investors pay for that protection, the more worried they are about repayment. SpaceX's five-year CDS traded between 195 and 197 basis points on October 7. Both ends of that range mark record territory for the contract. To put that in plain terms: protecting $10 million of SpaceX debt for a year now costs roughly $197,000. That is the highest price the market has ever charged for this particular kind of peace of mind.

The $40 Billion Shopping List

The financing plan was outlined in reports from the Financial Times and Bloomberg. It would reportedly be split into two pieces. The first is $10 billion in bank loans. The second is $30 billion in investment-grade debt. Together, they would fund a large purchase of Nvidia AI chips.

A Balance Sheet that Keeps Getting Heavier

As of June 30, 2026, the company reported total debt of $38.4 billion. That figure came after a busy June. SpaceX completed a record-setting IPO that month, then quickly followed it with a $25 billion bond issuance.

The Broader Worry about AI Leverage

SpaceX is borrowing into a market already uneasy about how the AI boom is being financed. Investor Ray Dalio has raised alarms about rising leverage and a potential bubble forming as borrowing costs tied to AI investments climb.