State of AI report returns for its ninth year with Anthropic atop the benchmarks

Introduction

The State of AI Report is back for its ninth edition, and it frames the frontier of artificial intelligence as a three-horse race between Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google. Anthropic leads the pack on the scoreboard, according to the report.

What the Report Covers

The report was published on October 8, 2026, by Nathan Benaich of Air Street Capital. It is an independent annual review that has run every year since its debut in 2018. The report tracks developments across AI research, industry, geopolitics, safety, and policy.

Benchmarking

To rank the leading models, this year's edition pulls benchmark data from Artificial Analysis and its Intelligence Index. The report draws on versions v4.1 through v4.3 of that index, which focus on agentic workloads.

Four Big Themes

Beyond the leaderboard, the report highlights four themes that its authors see shaping the field. These include AI helping build AI, progress in physical AI and robotics, an inference surge, and rising cyber threats.

Grading Last Year's Predictions

One of the report's recurring features is an honest look at its own track record. Each year it scores the predictions it made the year before. This edition's updated scorecard shows two correct hits, five partial hits, and three misses. Across those ten graded calls, outright wins were the smallest category.

Why a Nine-Year-Old Report Still Matters

When the State of AI Report launched in 2018, the field looked very different. Over nine editions it has become a recurring checkpoint for researchers, founders, investors, and policymakers trying to make sense of a fast-moving industry.